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The economic outlook for 2025 is marked by a delicate balancing act with global economies navigating persistent inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and shifting labor market dynamics.

After two years of flat markets, the U.S. stock market reached new highs in 2024. Recession worries in 2022 did not materialize, and the economy navigated the highest interest rate environment since 2000.

It took two full years for the stock market to finally reach new highs. After the recession worries of 2022 and a steady recovery in 2023, the S&P 500 finally hit new highs this January.

In 2022, interest rates hit levels not seen in 20 years and the conventional wisdom on Wall Street called for a recession to arrive in 2023. As a result, the stock market realized a bear market drawdown of 25%. However, the economy proved resilient, and the employment situation remained strong.

The U.S. stock market saw a strong recovery through the first eight months of the year. After falling by 18% in 2022, the S&P 500 advanced by 16% through September 15. Over the past 18 months, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates 11 times to 5.25%.

The U.S. stock market saw a bear market in 2022, falling 25% before bottoming in October. Fears of a recession weighed on markets as the impacts of inflation and higher interest rates were unclear.